Since the beginning of this year, northbound funds have continued to flow into the A-share market, of which the electronics industry has absorbed 11.19% of northbound funds.
Institutional research shows that the overall warming trend of the electronics industry is being established, especially in the new demand created by the AI boom, which will thicken the performance of leading segments such as semiconductors, consumer electronics and optical optoelectronics.
The electronics industry absorbed 11.19% of northbound capital during the year,
Naura and BOE A gain position
Since the beginning of this year (as of March 12, the same below), Shenwan's electronic sector has been a net purchase of 6.575 billion yuan by north funds, which is the third largest concern of north funds in Shenwan's 31 major industries. From the data point of view, the northbound funds in the year total net purchase of A shares 58.769 billion yuan, of which the electronics industry accounted for 11.19% of the capital.
In terms of individual stocks, the net purchase amount of northbound funds for NAURA, BOE A and Weil shares all exceeded 1 billion yuan, and the three companies together accounted for nearly 69% of the net purchase amount of northbound funds in the entire industry (see table).
In the same period last year, the northbound capital net buy electronics industry 13.137 billion yuan, net buy A shares 151.602 billion yuan, electronic industry net buy accounted for 8.7%. Northbound net purchase of more than 1 billion yuan of individual stocks A total of 5, are BOE A, Zhuo Sheng micro, Mongo Technology, Weil shares and TCL technology, of which BOE with a net purchase of 3.941 billion yuan ranked first in the industry, the total of five companies accounted for about 65% of the entire industry northbound capital net purchase.
By comparison, it can be seen that Open AI's release of ChatGPT in November 2022 has driven much more short-term attention to artificial intelligence, including the electronics industry, than this year, although Open AI released its first technically disruptive Vincencene video model Sora in mid-February this year, but the impact remains to be seen.
In terms of northbound fund selling, the electronic stocks with net sales of more than 1 billion yuan of northbound funds during the year are Industrial rich Union and Lishun Precision, of which industrial Rich Union was a net sale of 1.287 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year, no electronic stocks were sold more than 1 billion yuan. This may indicate that the trading of northbound funds in the electronics industry is returning to corporate fundamentals from the wave of AI speculation.
Segments such as semiconductors and optoelectronics
The business cycle shift is imminent
In various segments of the electronics industry, including semiconductors, consumer electronics and optoelectronics, the signal of the business cycle is continuing to be released.
In the semiconductor industry, the memory chip industry has taken the lead in starting the price increase cycle. It is understood that since the beginning of this year, the three original factories Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron Technology operating rate and capital expenditure upward revision phenomenon shows that the industry inventory has been completed. Recently, some manufacturers have raised prices for niche DDR3 products, increasing by nearly 20%.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) said on March 4 that global semiconductor industry sales totaled $47.6 billion in January 2024, up 15.2% from a year earlier and down 2.1% from a month earlier. "The global semiconductor market is off to a strong start to the New Year, with the largest year-over-year increase in global sales since May 2022," said SIA President and CEO John Neuffer.
In the field of consumer electronics, AI mobile phones have become an important development direction for brand manufacturers including Apple and Huawei. Meanwhile, the mobile phone market is stabilising. According to the statistics of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in January 2024, mobile phone shipments in the domestic market were 31.778 million units, an increase of 68.1%, of which 5G mobile phones were 26.165 million units, an increase of 59.0%, accounting for 82.3% of mobile phone shipments in the same period.
In the field of optical optoelectronics, the price increase of display panels is expected to be obvious. According to the price quoted by Witsview in early March, compared with late February 2024, except for some size TV panels, the prices of the remaining sizes of monitors and notebook panels remain unchanged. In the TV panel, the 65 inch, 55 inch and 43 inch TV panel increased by $2 / piece, $1 / piece and $1 / piece compared with the previous period.
The improvement in industry prosperity is also reflected in the financial reports of the world's leading electronics companies. Dell Technologies released the latest financial results at the beginning of this month showed that its fourth fiscal quarter ended February 2 to achieve revenue of 22.318 billion US dollars, down 11% year on year, the quarter is basically flat; Net income attributable to the parent was $1.16 billion, up 89% year-on-year and 15% sequentially.
Dell's financial report also shows the new demand for AI to pull the server industry. In the fourth quarter, Dell's Infrastructure Solutions segment (ISG), which includes servers, generated $9.33 billion in revenue, up 10 percent sequentially. Dell AI-optimized server sales reached $800 million, with orders up 40% sequentially and total orders on hand at the end of the quarter at $2.9 billion. Looking ahead to the new fiscal year ending February 2025, Dell expects revenue of $91 billion to $95 billion, with the ISG segment growing by about 15 percent.
Institutional research believes that AI technology has promoted the demand for high-performance computing chips and high-end memory chips, and the performance of memory chips and AI markets has become the core driving force for the recovery of the global semiconductor market in 2024.
Naura's performance increased by 50%
There are new initiatives at the corporate governance level
The reason why Naura has been "cared for" by funds is not only related to the recovery of the semiconductor industry, but also has a certain relationship with its fundamental changes. Since the listing of the company in 2010 to 2022, the compound annual growth rate of net profit is 33.21%, and the net profit to the mother has increased 28 times compared with the beginning of the listing. According to the performance forecast, in 2023, NAURA is expected to achieve operating income of more than 20 billion yuan, an increase of more than 40%; Net profit is expected to exceed 3.5 billion yuan, an increase of more than 50% year-on-year. At the same time, the company signed more than 30 billion yuan of new orders in 2023, of which the IC field accounted for more than 70%.
In addition, NAURA has also made good progress in cutting-edge technologies. According to the company's "Quality return double improvement" action plan announcement, in 2023, the company released the 12-inch plasma Etch machine Accura BE applied to the Bevel Etch process, achieving a breakthrough of "zero" of domestic crystal edge dry etching equipment; Successfully developed the ACE i300 12-inch stripping machine, which opened up a new territory in the field of 12-inch etching; Orion Proxima, the self-developed 12-inch high-density plasma chemical vapor deposition (HDPCVD) device, has officially entered client validation. By the end of 2023, NAURA has applied for more than 7,900 patents and obtained more than 4,600 authorized patents, ranking first in the number of patents among domestic IC equipment enterprises.
Some investors asked NAURA on the "Interactive easy" platform: "According to revenue statistics, NAURA ranked among the world's top ten semiconductor enterprises for the first time in 2023, and the ranking may further rise this year, whether the company will consider expanding the market expansion of overseas semiconductor fabs in the future?" The company replied: "The company has always attached great importance to the expansion of overseas markets, overseas turnover has increased year by year, the company will continue to increase the expansion of overseas markets in the future, for greater performance."
In terms of corporate governance, NAURA issued a follow-up progress announcement on the free transfer of state-owned equity on March 8, that is, the company received a notice from the actual controller Beijing Electric Control on November 16, 2023. It is proposed to transfer 33.61% of NAhua Chuang's equity (corresponding to 178,175,721 shares) held by Beijing Seven Star Huadian Technology Group Co., LTD. (hereinafter referred to as "Seven Star Group") to Beijing Electric Control without compensation. After the completion of this free transfer, all the shares held by Beijing Electric Control will be directly held, and the controlling shareholder will also be changed to Beijing Electric Control.
Boe's performance reflects the cyclical changes in the industry
Product structure adjustment is optimistic
Boe 2023 performance forecast shows that in 2023, the company achieved a net profit of 2.3 billion to 2.5 billion yuan, down 67% to 70%. Among them, the net profit of the fourth quarter of 2023 was 1.28 billion yuan to 1.48 billion yuan, an increase of 346.85% to 416.78%, and the quarter-on-quarter growth rate improved significantly.
The sequential improvement at the performance level reflects not only the factors that change the business cycle of the industry, but also the effectiveness of industry leaders in on-demand production and dynamic adjustment of the operating rate. According to TrendForce, the average operating rate of the TV panel industry fell below 60% in February, compared with a previous estimate of 68%. According to the panel quotation in early March, the demand for TV panels has significantly increased after March, and the average production capacity is expected to rise to more than 80%, which will enhance the confidence of panel factories to raise prices.
Boe's main product structure is undergoing great changes. Data show that in 2023, global OLED smartphone panel shipments will increase by 6% year-on-year to 624 million pieces, of which flexible OLED smartphone panel shipments increased by 23% year-on-year, and foldable OLED smartphone panels increased by 46% year-on-year. Boe actively layout flexible AMOLED, focusing on promoting low-temperature polycrystalline oxide (LTPO), folding, depolarizing plate (COE) and other high-end technology products shipments, 2023 the company's flexible AMOLED shipments of nearly 120 million pieces, shipments increased significantly, mature production line profitability improved significantly.
According to the news of "Hefei New Station Area", on March 5, Hefei BOE Rui Vision Technology Co., Ltd. was officially inaugurated, and the research and development project of sensing flexible dimming film and electronic devices was signed simultaneously. It is reported that the new contract project is committed to creating a leading domestic research and development base of flexible dimming technology and flexible sensing electronic devices, with a total investment of 158 million yuan, the first phase of the project is expected to achieve a production capacity of 10K/ month.
Guosen Securities research believes that BOE 2022 revenue accounted for 88.53% of the display device business, is expected to grow 16.3% and 12.7% year-on-year from 2024 to 2025 to 1800.59 billion yuan and 202.902 billion yuan, gross margin of 15.6% and 18.3% respectively. At the same time, the net profit of the company is expected to change 88.8% and 134.2% year-on-year to 4.447 billion yuan and 10.417 billion yuan. Under the support of the "on-demand production and dynamic production control" business model of the panel factory, the panel price is optimistic about moderate fluctuations, and the industry is expected to enter a new stage of stable profit.
